Yesterday, on the first day of spring, the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, www.erfc.wa.gov, presented its quarterly economic and revenue forecast that is used to underpin the state operating budget for the next two years.

The Executive Summary and slide presentation can be found here: http://www.erfc.wa.gov/forecast/documents/rev20130320color.pdf

Economic activity globally, nationally and locally is at best growing slowly, at worst poised for another recession.  Trends in Europe and Asia are not overly bright but there is potential for renewed economic growth, especially if Europe can right its banking and financial system.

The U.S. is on an upward path but the curve is not very steep.  Unemployment is coming down, home and auto sales are up but increased payroll taxes and gas prices have put a damper on consumer spending.

The number that policymakers and elected officials look at is the projected revenues for the 2013-15 biennium.  That number is $32.541 billion.  It is $19 million lower than the November forecast.  Not a big number but legislators would have liked it to go the other way.  If the economy continues to grow; if Boeing continues to sell more airplanes to foreign markets; if the state’s agricultural sector stays strong and if the sofitware/IT sectors keep moving forward, revenue collections in the next two years will go up, easing the difficulty of managing a tight state budget.

The next step in the legislative process will be for the state Senate to release its budget and pass it over to the Senate.  The Senate budget will be introduced likely next week.

There is a ton of interesting economic and tax revenue statistics in the ERFC report, including historic data going back to 1995. 

Stay tuned for more posts on the Washington legislature as the session moves into its final 30 days.