On January 12, over 800 people flocked to the Westin in downtown Seattle to be a part of the 45th Annual Economic Forecast Conference conference, which is organized by the Economic Development Council of Seattle and King County. I’ve attended the conference for the past three years and this year’s was the best one. (And I’m not just saying that because I was on the steering committee!)

To begin the conference, three “forecasters” – Bank of America’s Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy Karin Kimbrough, Senior Economist at Zillow Skylar Olsen, and president/CEO of Company Attributes, Inc. Chris Mefford – spoke about their predictions for the future of our global, national, and regional economies.

2017 Economic Forecast  

On a regional level, we have reason to believe that we’ll see continued prosperity and growth – 60,000 people migrated Seattle-ward in 2016 alone. Now the question is, how do we use that prosperity to diminish the ever-growing divide between the rich and the poor? And how will the Trump administration affect our ability to do so? Trump is promising a lot of stimulus by cutting taxes, but unemployment is low, wages are going up, and rents are going down…so how much stimulus do we really need? Everything we know to be true is shifting, and it will be at least another four or five months after our soon-to-be president takes office until we have a hold on how things will shake out.

Here are some memorable bites from the forecasters:

• Fiscal shifts create geopolitical shifts.
• Most of the world is experiencing an economic upswing, but the outlook is not as bright in Europe. Also, China could say the U.S. is going to let its currency float if Trump continues to threaten to cut trade.
• When it comes to housing in our region, no laws will prevent change. If you keep the current zoning, then prices will go up and new people will move in. If you change the zoning, the density will increase, but the people who are currently living in the area can stay.
• The biggest job drivers in the Seattle area are retail and healthcare. We need to get those numbers up and continue to multiply jobs.
• “You can’t build a wall to keep the robots out. There are more industrial robots that are automating jobs.”

Fireside Chat: Lessons Learned from the San Francisco Bay Area

Carl Guardino, CEO of Silicon Valley Leadership Group, and Matt McIlwain, Managing Director at Madrona Venture Group, sat down together to discuss how the greater Seattle area’s tech boom is an asset to creating an equitable and integrated region. Guardino kicked the conversation off with a joke after hearing about the prices of Seattle housing. “I’ll take three of those,” he said, referring to how inexpensive Seattle real estate is compared to San Francisco’s.

Every year, Silicon Valley Leadership Group publishes a study looking at the top five tech hubs, one of which is Seattle. When we look at how we measure up to the others, three weaknesses emerge: traffic, housing, and education.

Guardino pointed out that in Silicon Valley, people act out of “enlightened self-interest.” One way of doing that is fostering close relationships between community colleges and industry leaders, to help students rapidly adjust to industry’s speed of innovation. This is in stark contrast to Washington, where I frequently hear people in education bemoan the lack of input they receive from industry leaders, and, conversely, where industry leaders complain that education isn’t moving fast enough. In California, the two groups are working closely, and they’re seeing results.

Another key difference between California and Washington is the former’s high state income tax and our lack of one. McIllwain supported not having an income tax. “People keep saying we need a state income tax. But our tax income climbed from $28 billion in 2010 to $38 billion from when we last proposed a state income tax, and we’re expected to gain another $5.1 billion in the next five years. We have a rich and diverse set of tax income: sales, property tax, and B&O tax.”

Breakout Sessions: Economic Prosperity for All

There were four strong breakout sessions. I attended the one called “Economic Prosperity for All: Balancing Growth While Preserving Our Diverse Economy” because I was attracted to the diverse sector and industry representation of the panelists. You can find the full agenda of all the breakout sessions here.

The panelists included:

• Monty Anderson, Executive Secretary, Seattle Building & Construction Trades Council
• Dan Dixon, Chief Community Engagement Officer, Providence Health & Services
• Juan Garcia, Global Leader for Career Advancement
• Dr. Damien Pattenaude, Superintendent-Elect, Renton School District

They began the session by talking about how to make middle-income jobs available to more people. Later, they addressed underlying systemic inequities that make it hard for poor people to get ahead at an early age, and concluded that we have to do something about those issues to make a real difference. The panel ended with a sense of urgency. One panelist said, ““Let’s not talk, let’s do something. Action is critical. How do we get out of the bubble?”

Here are some important takeaways from the breakout session:

• Seatac, which is just seven miles away from Seattle, has the health index of a developing nation. 17% of the city’s kindergartners are homeless, and therefore are already at a disadvantage when it comes to someday acquiring gainful employment.
• Go into the communities you want to improve and actually volunteer with the kids and students there. It will change your perspective. “The role of trauma we see in these kids is un-freaking-believable,” said Pattenaude. Get to know them directly if you really want to make their lives better.
• Listening to the community was an important lesson for Dixon. He recounted how Swedish fronted one million dollars over five years for his Global to Local program. He went to 20 community leaders and told them what they were going to do and the reception was very chilly. And then one of them, a leader from Seatac, said, “Well, Dan, would you like to hear what we think we need?” He realized he hadn’t gone to the community with the intent to listen.
• Many of our region’s construction projects don’t reflect our local communities, and don’t employ enough people from them. We have to push developers and city leaders to question why, for example, we’re bringing in people from Indiana when we have a capable workforce here.
• We need more programs like Amazon’s Career Choice program, which offers tuition assistance for hourly workers and help getting them training for their region’s most in-demand jobs.  
• Many 19-30 year-olds are well qualified to take jobs and we have to make more investments in them.

Governor Inslee ended the conference with a lunchtime address that resonated with me deeply. He spoke of creating new pathways to jobs – something we at WTIA are committed to doing via our Apprenti program.

“We have to stop telling our kids the only path to a good job is a four-year degree,” he said.

The technology industry is completely rewriting the rulebook when it comes to job acquisition, and if we want our economy to continue to prosper, we need to make sure this rulebook ensures everyone a fair chance to get out on the playing field.

For slides of the presentations, please visit the EDC website.